By Benjamin Finnerty (S), REALTOR® (RS-83812) with Keller Williams Realty Maui · Kīhei, Maui · 808-481-9748

Quick Answer: Fannie Mae’s October 2026 Housing Forecast projects the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2026 and 7.5% for every quarter of 2027, up from 6.8% and 6.7% in its previous outlook. Freddie Mac’s weekly average was 7.40% on October 15, 2026, versus 6.27% a year earlier.

I’m Benjamin Finnerty, a REALTOR® in Kīhei with Keller Williams Realty Maui. A lot of the buyers I talk with have been waiting for rates to come back down. Fannie Mae’s latest mortgage rate forecast for 2027 doesn’t promise that, so here’s what the new numbers say, what they could mean for a Maui monthly payment, and how I’d plan around them.

What is Fannie Mae’s mortgage rate forecast for 2027?

Fannie Mae now expects the 30-year fixed rate to hold at about 7.5% throughout 2027. Its Economic and Strategic Research group published the October 2026 Housing Forecast in mid-October, with interest rate assumptions based on rates as of September 30, 2026. Coverage of the release noted the jump from the prior outlook:

Period	Prior Fannie Mae forecast	October 2026 forecast
Q4 2026 average, 30-year fixed	6.8%	7.4%
2027 average, 30-year fixed	6.7%	7.5%

That’s an upward shift of 0.6 to 0.8 percentage points from one monthly outlook to the next. Forecasts are just that, and this one shows how quickly they can move in either direction.

Where are mortgage rates right now?

As of Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey on Thursday, October 15, 2026, the 30-year fixed averaged 7.40%, unchanged from the prior week. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.71%. A year earlier, those rates were 6.27% and 5.52%.

Freddie Mac’s survey is a national average for borrowers with strong credit and 20% down. Your own quote depends on credit, down payment, loan size and property type. Condos can price differently depending on the building’s project review status, which I covered in my post on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac condo rules.

Why are mortgage rates rising in 2026?

The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point on Wednesday, September 16, 2026, to a target range of 3.75% to 4.00%, citing elevated inflation. The Fed’s next meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday, October 27-28, 2026.

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates directly. Thirty-year mortgage rates tend to follow longer-term Treasury yields, which reflect inflation expectations and the broader economy. Still, a Fed that is raising rates, rather than cutting, has been part of why forecasters stopped penciling in relief for 2027.

What does a 7.5% mortgage rate mean for a Maui monthly payment?

On a Maui condo at the September 2026 countywide median, it means a few hundred dollars a month more than a year ago. The REALTORS® Association of Maui reported a September 2026 median of $660,000 for condos and $1,150,000 for single-family homes. Here’s principal and interest on a 30-year loan with 20% down:

Rate scenario	Condo loan $528,000	Single-family loan $920,000
6.27% (year-ago average)	$3,258	$5,677
7.40% (Oct. 15, 2026 average)	$3,656	$6,370
7.50% (Fannie Mae 2027 forecast)	$3,692	$6,433
8.00% (higher-rate scenario)	$3,874	$6,751

These figures are principal and interest only. Property tax, insurance and any HOA dues come on top, and for condos the HOA alone can be a large line. Both loan amounts are under Maui’s 2026 one-unit conforming loan limit of $1,299,500.

Should I wait for mortgage rates to fall before buying on Maui?

Waiting is a bet, not a plan. If Fannie Mae’s forecast is right, rates won’t be meaningfully lower through 2027. If it’s wrong in the other direction, rates could fall, and buyers who are already in contract may be able to refinance later, though that comes with its own costs and isn’t guaranteed. Meanwhile, Maui’s condo market has given buyers more room to negotiate this year: RAM’s September report showed condo sales up 56.5% from a year earlier, with a median of 199 days on market.

My Take: What I’m Telling Buyers and Sellers About Rates

For buyers, I’d build the budget around today’s rate, not a hoped-for one. Run your numbers at 7.5% and at 8% so a lender’s final quote doesn’t surprise you, and ask your lender how rate locks work and how long they last. If a seller is open to credits, compare a lower price with a seller-paid rate buydown; I walked through that math in my post on rate buydowns and seller concessions. An adjustable-rate loan can lower the starting payment, but make sure you understand how high it can adjust before you choose one.

For sellers, higher rates shrink what some buyers can afford, so pricing matters more. My advice is to price to where the market appears to be going, not where it’s been. Look at what the next three months suggest and price to that, so you lead the market rather than follow it. That’s a judgment based on current data, not a guarantee, and it’s why I look at the most recent comparable sales rather than ones from three to six months ago.

For everyone, watch October 28. The Fed’s decision won’t set mortgage rates, but it will shape the conversation about where they go next.

For more background, see my earlier post on what 7.40% rates mean for Maui buyers.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Fannie Mae’s mortgage rate forecast for 2027?
In its October 2026 Housing Forecast, Fannie Mae projects the 30-year fixed rate averaging 7.5% in each quarter of 2027, up from 6.7% in its prior outlook.

What was the average mortgage rate on October 15, 2026?
Freddie Mac reported 7.40% for the 30-year fixed and 6.71% for the 15-year fixed.

When is the next Fed meeting?
October 27-28, 2026. The Fed raised its target range to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026.

How much does a 1% rate change cost on a Maui condo?
On a $528,000 loan, moving from 6.27% to 7.40% adds about $398 a month in principal and interest. Your figures will depend on your loan.

Are mortgage rate forecasts reliable?
They’re useful scenarios, not promises. Fannie Mae’s own 2027 forecast moved about 0.8 percentage points between its September and October outlooks.

Ask Benjamin

If you’d like to see how today’s rates change the math on a specific Maui condo or home, I’m Benjamin Finnerty, and I’m glad to run the numbers with you and your lender. Call or text 808-481-9748 or email benjamin@the808team.com.

Sources: Fannie Mae Economic and Strategic Research, Housing Forecast, October 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 15, 2026); Federal Reserve FOMC decision (Sept. 16, 2026), as reported by CNBC and Advisor Perspectives; REALTORS® Association of Maui September 2026 data, as reported by Maui Now (Oct. 9, 2026); FHFA 2026 conforming loan limits.