By Benjamin Finnerty (S), REALTOR® (RS-83812) with Keller Williams Realty Maui · Kīhei, Maui · 808-481-9748

Quick Answer: On October 8, 2026, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory in place and put the chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño through January–March 2027 at more than 83%. El Niño winters in Hawaiʻi tend to be drier than normal, which for Maui can mean renewed water restrictions, higher wildfire risk and big winter surf.

I’m Benjamin Finnerty, a REALTOR® in Kīhei with Keller Williams Realty Maui. If you’re moving to Maui this winter or buying a home here, a Maui El Niño winter is worth understanding, because it affects water, landscaping, insurance and how you evaluate a property. Here’s what forecasters are saying as of mid-October 2026, and what I’d do about it.

What did NOAA say about El Niño in October 2026?

NOAA says a strong El Niño is under way and likely to keep strengthening through the end of 2026. In its October 8, 2026 discussion, the Climate Prediction Center reported:

Indicator (CPC, Oct. 8, 2026)	Reading
ENSO alert status	El Niño Advisory
Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly	+2.1°C
Chance of strong-to-very-strong El Niño through Jan–Mar 2027	Greater than 83%
Chance of an event exceeding every El Niño since 1950 (Oct–Dec)	83%

Does El Niño mean a dry winter on Maui?

Usually, yes, though it’s a tendency, not a guarantee. Winter is normally Hawaiʻi’s wet season, but El Niño winters tend to bring less rain and fewer Kona low storms. In April, state climatologist Pao-Shin Chu told Civil Beat, “This coming winter and next spring are going to bring very low rainfall.” A National Weather Service Honolulu meteorologist told The Weather Channel in August that El Niño winters typically bring more light-wind days instead of steady trade winds, and larger northwest-to-west-northwest surf.

NWS Honolulu released last year’s wet-season outlook in late October 2025, so I’d watch for this year’s official outlook in the coming weeks.

Could Maui see water restrictions again this winter?

It’s possible, especially Upcountry. The County Department of Water Supply declared a Stage 3 water shortage with mandatory restrictions for Upcountry in October 2025, then lifted the Upcountry and West Maui shortages on March 17, 2026 after days of heavy rain. A dry winter could reverse that. Nothing has been announced as of October 14, 2026, but buyers should know the history.

If you’re buying Upcountry, also read my posts on the Upcountry water meter waitlist and Maui’s new water rates.

What does El Niño mean for wildfire risk on Maui?

Higher risk is the concern. University of Hawaiʻi fire ecologist Clay Trauernicht’s analysis found a strong correlation between El Niño seasons and especially large annual wildfire footprints in Hawaiʻi, according to Civil Beat. He described a “one-two punch”: wet months grow vegetation, and dry months turn it into fuel. The March 2026 Kona low storms brought heavy rain statewide and fueled rapid vegetation growth.

There’s progress on preparedness: before the August 2023 fires, 16 Hawaiʻi communities were enrolled in Firewise USA; by April 2026, 50 were nationally accredited, with 10 more in the enrollment process.

Is hurricane season over?

Not yet. The Central Pacific hurricane season runs through November 30. The Weather Channel reported in August that El Niño tends to make the season more active near Hawaiʻi, and even distant storms can bring high surf and gusty winds. My post on Maui hurricane insurance after Lala, Lowell and Nolo covers what to check in a policy.

My Take: What I’m Telling Buyers, Sellers and People Moving to Maui

When I walk a property with a buyer, I look at the water meter, how close the property is to vacant land parcels, the general condition of the surrounding area, and ingress and egress: how you get into and out of the area. I’d also ask whether the area has had water shortage restrictions in the past year. Get homeowners insurance quotes early in your contingency period, because wildfire and hurricane exposure both affect availability and price.

If you’re selling this winter, treat landscaping as maintenance, not just curb appeal: cut back dry grass, clear gutters and keep brush away from structures. Then disclose what you know about water service, drainage or past weather damage. Buyers ask about these items more after a dry stretch, not less.

If you’re moving here this winter, plan for drier conditions than the usual “wet season” label suggests, especially in areas that have had water restrictions before. Sign up for Maui County emergency alerts when you arrive, and save the County water department’s updates.

General information, not tax or legal advice; confirm with a CPA or Hawaiʻi attorney, and confirm insurance questions with a licensed Hawaiʻi insurance agent.

FAQ

Is El Niño happening in 2026?

Yes. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center had an El Niño Advisory in effect as of October 8, 2026 and expected El Niño to keep strengthening through the end of 2026.

Will Maui have a dry winter in 2026-27?

Forecasters expect drier-than-normal conditions to be more likely during a strong El Niño winter, but outcomes vary. Check NWS Honolulu’s wet-season outlook for the official forecast.

When does hurricane season end in Hawaiʻi?

The Central Pacific hurricane season runs through November 30.

Were Upcountry Maui water restrictions lifted?

Yes. The Department of Water Supply lifted Upcountry and West Maui water shortages on March 17, 2026. Restrictions could return in a dry winter.

Ask Benjamin

If you’re planning a move or a purchase and want help sizing up a property’s water, fire and insurance questions, I’m Benjamin Finnerty, and I’m glad to help. Call or text 808-481-9748 or email benjamin@the808team.com.

Sources: NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion (Oct. 8, 2026); Honolulu Civil Beat (Apr. 27, 2026); The Weather Channel/weather.com (Aug. 13, 2026); Maui Now (Oct. 17, 2025; Mar. 17, 2026); County of Maui; Hawaii News Now (Mar. 17, 2026).