By Benjamin Finnerty (S), REALTOR® (RS-83812) with Keller Williams Realty Maui · Kīhei, Maui · 808-481-9748

Quick Answer: In its September 25, 2026 forecast, the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) projected statewide real GDP growth of only about half a percent in 2026, yet named Maui the only county expected to post net job gains this year, with Maui visitor arrivals up almost 5% and incomes up about 6%.

I’m Benjamin Finnerty, a REALTOR® in Kīhei with Keller Williams Realty Maui, and the Maui economic forecast is one of the first things I look at when buyers and sellers ask me where the market is headed. UHERO’s fall report paints two pictures at once: a sluggish state economy and a Maui recovery that’s still moving forward. Here’s what that means if you’re planning to buy, sell or move here.

What did UHERO’s fall 2026 forecast say about Hawaiʻi?

UHERO said Hawaiʻi’s economy has slowed sharply in 2026, with real GDP growth falling to roughly 0.5% to 0.6%, down from more than 3% in 2025. The forecast, titled “No respite from storms or oil prices,” blames higher energy prices and a damaging storm season, including Hurricane Lowell’s September brush with Kauaʻi.

Key statewide figures from the forecast (released Friday, September 25, 2026):

Indicator	UHERO figure
Real GDP growth, 2026	About 0.5%–0.6% (2025: more than 3%)
Nonfarm jobs, 2026	Down 0.2%
Nonfarm jobs, 2027	Up 0.2%
Unemployment rate (August 2026)	2.7%
Honolulu inflation, 12 months through July 2026	5.6%
Inflation forecast, 2026 average	4.8%
Inflation forecast, 2027 average	3.3%

UHERO expects gradual improvement in 2027 as energy prices and storm effects fade. Its economists described weak demand for workers, not a shortage of workers, as the main labor-market story.

Is Maui’s economy doing better than the rest of Hawaiʻi?

Yes, on UHERO’s numbers. Maui is the only county UHERO expects to add jobs on net in 2026, and it has the strongest tourism growth in the state. UHERO wrote that “Maui is seeing by far the strongest 2026 growth as its recovery from the post-wildfire losses continues.”

The Maui-specific points, confirmed in UHERO’s report and in coverage by The Maui News and Maui Now:

• Jobs: Maui is the only county projected to post net employment gains in 2026.
• Visitors: Maui arrivals are forecast to rise almost 5% in 2026, then slow to about 2% in 2027.
• Income: Maui income is projected to rise about 6% in 2026.

That income number needs context. UHERO tied it to wildfire-related compensation being paid out, not to a matching rise in wages or jobs. In other words, some of Maui’s 2026 strength is one-time money from the recovery from the August 8, 2023 fires, not permanent growth.

What does the Maui economic forecast mean for home prices?

It points to a slow, choppy market rather than a sharp move in either direction. UHERO said statewide home prices have been largely flat in 2026, while mortgage rates near 7% have pushed monthly payments up and strained affordability.

Maui’s own data lines up with that. According to the REALTORS® Association of Maui (RAM), as reported by Maui Now on October 9, 2026:

Maui County, September 2026	Condos	Single-family homes
Sales	72 (up 56.5%)	52 (down 7.1%)
Median price	$660,000 (up 1.1%)	$1,150,000 (down 11%)
Median days on market	199 (up 56.7%)	134 (up 5.5%)

Rates have also moved higher since UHERO’s report. Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.40% on Thursday, October 8, 2026, the highest since November 2023. I covered what that does to monthly payments in my post on Maui mortgage rates at 7.40%.

Put together: more condo deals are closing, but they’re taking much longer to sell, and single-family prices softened in September. A growing local economy supports demand, while high rates and high costs cap how far prices can stretch.

How could inflation and condo costs affect Maui buyers?

They raise the true cost of ownership even when prices are flat. With inflation forecast to average 4.8% in 2026, energy, insurance and maintenance costs keep climbing. UHERO also flagged that condo fees could rise further under new federal funding rules for condo associations.

Those rules matter here. Starting January 4, 2027, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac raise the minimum condo reserve contribution from 10% to 15% of budgeted assessment income. I explained what that means for financing in my post on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac condo rule changes.

My Take: What I’m Telling Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, this is a market that rewards preparation. Condos are taking a median of 199 days to sell, which usually means more room to negotiate on price, credits and timelines. But a lower price doesn’t help if the monthly cost doesn’t work, so I’d budget at today’s 7%-plus rates, not at hoped-for future rates. Read the association’s budget, reserve study and recent minutes before you write an offer, because fee increases are a real risk this year.

For sellers, UHERO’s Maui outlook is a reason for steady confidence, not urgency. Job and visitor growth support demand, but buyers are rate-sensitive and have choices. Pricing to current sales, not to 2022 or 2023 levels, and preparing association documents up front are the two things I’d focus on.

One scenario to watch: if inflation eases in 2027 as UHERO expects and rates follow, buyers who are sitting out could return. If inflation stays high, the current slow pace could continue. Neither is guaranteed, which is why I’d make decisions based on your own timeline and budget rather than trying to time the market.

Frequently Asked Questions

When did UHERO release its fall 2026 forecast?
UHERO released its third-quarter state forecast on September 25, 2026.

Is Maui expected to add jobs in 2026?
Yes. UHERO projects Maui as the only Hawaiʻi county with net job gains in 2026, even as statewide payrolls dip 0.2%.

Why is Maui income forecast to rise 6% in 2026?
UHERO attributes it largely to wildfire-related compensation payouts, not to a matching increase in wages or employment.

What were Maui’s median prices in September 2026?
Per the REALTORS® Association of Maui, the September 2026 median was $660,000 for condos and $1,150,000 for single-family homes in Maui County.

Will Maui home prices drop in 2027?
No one can say for sure. UHERO described statewide prices as largely flat in 2026; future prices will depend on rates, inflation and local demand.

Ask Benjamin

If you’d like to talk through how this forecast applies to a specific condo, home or neighborhood, I’m happy to help. I’m Benjamin Finnerty, a REALTOR® in Kīhei with Keller Williams Realty Maui. Call or text me at 808-481-9748 or email benjamin@the808team.com.

Sources: University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization (UHERO) state forecast, Sept. 25, 2026; The Maui News; Maui Now; Hawaii Tribune-Herald; REALTORS® Association of Maui September 2026 report via Maui Now (Oct. 9, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 8, 2026); Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac condo project guidance.