By Benjamin Finnerty (S), REALTOR® (RS-83812) with Keller Williams Realty Maui · Kīhei, Maui · 808-481-9748

Quick Answer: Maui condo prices fell 11% in 2025 from 2023 levels, and condos on the Minatoya list fell 16%, according to UHERO’s Hawaiʻi Housing Factbook 2026. Monthly REALTORS® Association of Maui data have been uneven since: the countywide condo median was $660,000 in September 2026, up 1.1% from September 2025, after a 13.1% year-over-year drop in August.

I’m Benjamin Finnerty, a REALTOR® in Kīhei with Keller Williams Realty Maui, and South Maui condos are a big part of my focus. The question I hear most from condo buyers this fall is simple: are Maui condo prices still falling? The honest answer is that it depends a lot on which condos you’re looking at, and the data now shows that split clearly.

How much have Maui condo prices dropped?

According to UHERO, the University of Hawaiʻi Economic Research Organization, Maui condo prices in 2025 were 11% below 2023 levels. Condos in buildings on the Minatoya list fell further, 16%. UHERO tied that decline to Bill 9, which Mayor Richard Bissen signed on December 15, 2025 as Ordinance 5909. It phases out roughly 7,000 transient vacation rentals in apartment-zoned buildings.

UHERO also found that condo affordability improved more than single-family affordability across Hawaiʻi, while cautioning that rising association fees and insurance costs can offset some of the gain.

Measure	Change	Source and period
Maui condo prices	Down 11%	UHERO, 2025 vs. 2023
Minatoya list condo prices	Down 16%	UHERO, 2025 vs. 2023
Maui condo median, Sept. 2026	$660,000, up 1.1% YoY	RAM, September 2026

What did Maui condos sell for in summer and fall 2026?

Monthly medians have swung with the mix of units that closed. Here’s the countywide condo picture from RAM’s last three monthly reports:

Month (2026)	Condo sales	Change in sales vs. 2025	Median price	Change in median vs. 2025
July	82	Up 54.7%	$690,000	Up 2.2%
August	68	Up 19.3%	$564,950	Down 13.1%
September	72	Up 56.5%	$660,000	Up 1.1%

The steadier signal is volume: condo sales were up year over year in all three months. A monthly median can move by tens of thousands of dollars depending on whether more oceanfront or more inland units close, so I don’t read much into one month’s median on its own. For the longer view, see my Q3 2026 market recap.

Are Minatoya list condos cheaper than other Maui condos?

On average, they’ve lost more value since 2023, according to UHERO, and the reason is the phase-out. Minatoya list buildings are apartment-zoned complexes that have allowed vacation rentals under a 2001 County legal opinion, and Bill 9 ends that use over the coming years. A buyer who plans to rent a unit nightly is paying for a shorter runway than they were two years ago, and prices have adjusted for that.

There’s an open question that affects some of these buildings: hotel rezoning. The Council has been weighing whether certain complexes should be rezoned to new hotel districts that would allow vacation rentals to continue. I covered the latest step in my post on 32 shoreline condos heading to the Planning Commission. Until those decisions are final, a unit’s future rental status can be uncertain, and that uncertainty is part of what’s priced in.

Buildings that are already hotel-zoned or otherwise allow transient rentals aren’t affected the same way. My hotel-zoned condo guide explains the differences.

Do lower Maui condo prices mean condos are more affordable?

Not automatically. The purchase price is only one piece. UHERO reports that 42% of Hawaiʻi homeowners pay HOA or AOAO fees, compared with 25% nationally, and that Hawaiʻi’s median monthly fee of $470 is the second-highest in the country. Many Maui condo complexes run well above that median. Add property tax, an HO-6 policy, any special assessments, and a mortgage at a 30-year average of 7.40% (Freddie Mac, October 15, 2026), and the monthly cost can look very different from what a lower price suggests.

The REALTORS® Association of Maui made a similar point in an October 14, 2026 Maui Now op-ed arguing that lower condo prices don’t by themselves make housing affordable for residents, because carrying costs remain high.

My Take: What I’m Telling Condo Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, the first question is zoning, not price. I have worked with clients who were looking at apartment-zoned properties that weren’t on any of the rezoning resolutions written since Bill 9, and they changed their minds about moving forward on one of those properties. These are important issues. If you plan to live in the unit or rent it long term, a Minatoya list building may offer value. If you need nightly rental income, confirm the building’s zoning and any pending rezoning before you fall in love with the view.

Then look past the price to the full monthly cost. I compare total HOA dues and what they cover, the association’s reserves and recent assessments, and the insurance picture side by side for every complex a buyer is considering. Two condos at the same price can differ by hundreds of dollars a month.

For sellers on the Minatoya list, the data says buyers are pricing in the phase-out. Recent comparable sales from your own building and zoning type matter far more than countywide medians. I’d rather price from those comparables and show buyers the full cost picture than wait for a rebound the data doesn’t yet show.

This is general information, not tax or legal advice; confirm with a CPA or Hawaiʻi attorney.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are Maui condo prices going down in 2026?
It varies. UHERO found Maui condo prices in 2025 were 11% below 2023, and RAM’s September 2026 condo median was $660,000, up 1.1% year over year. Month-to-month medians have been uneven.

Why did Minatoya list condo prices fall more?
UHERO tied the 16% decline to Bill 9 (Ordinance 5909), which phases out vacation rentals in apartment-zoned buildings that relied on the 2001 Minatoya opinion.

What is the average HOA fee for a condo in Hawaiʻi?
UHERO reports a statewide median of $470 a month, second-highest in the U.S. Many Maui complexes are higher; check each building’s budget.

Is now a good time to buy a Maui condo?
That depends on your plans for the unit, your budget and the building. Condo sales have been up year over year, and buyers have had more room to negotiate, but zoning and carrying costs should drive the decision.

Ask Benjamin

If you’re weighing a Maui condo and want to compare zoning, HOA costs and recent sales building by building, I’m Benjamin Finnerty, and I’m happy to help. Call or text 808-481-9748 or email benjamin@the808team.com.

Sources: UHERO, Hawaiʻi Housing Factbook 2026 (May 2026); University of Hawaiʻi News (May 7, 2026); Hawaii News Now (May 7, 2026); REALTORS® Association of Maui monthly data for July, August and September 2026, as reported by Maui Now (Aug. 12, Sept. 4 and Oct. 9, 2026); Maui Now op-ed by the REALTORS® Association of Maui (Oct. 14, 2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 15, 2026); County of Maui (Ordinance 5909).