By Benjamin Finnerty (S), REALTOR® (RS-83812) with Keller Williams Realty Maui · Kīhei, Maui · 808-481-9748

Quick Answer: The Federal Reserve announces its next rate decision on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026, at 2 p.m. Eastern (8 a.m. in Hawaiʻi). Markets mostly expect a hold after September’s quarter-point hike to 3.75%–4.00%. Going in, Freddie Mac’s 30-year average dipped to 7.32% on Oct. 22 from 7.40%, still well above 6.19% a year ago.

I’m Benjamin Finnerty, a REALTOR® in Kīhei with Keller Williams Realty Maui. Maui mortgage rates have been the biggest variable in buyers’ budgets this fall, so here’s what the Fed’s October meeting is, what forecasters expect, and how a move in either direction could change the monthly payment on a typical Maui home or condo.

When is the Fed’s October 2026 meeting?

The Federal Open Market Committee meets Tuesday and Wednesday, Oct. 27–28, 2026, and releases its statement Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, which is 8 a.m. Hawaiʻi time. This is not one of the meetings with new economic projections; the next set comes with the Dec. 8–9 meeting, per the Fed’s calendar.

At its last meeting, on Wednesday, Sept. 16, the Fed raised the federal funds target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, citing inflation that’s still above its 2% goal.

Is the Fed expected to raise rates again in October?

Most forecasters expect a pause. Forbes reported on Oct. 19 that CME FedWatch pricing showed roughly an 80% chance of a hold, with markets leaning toward another hike in December. J.P. Morgan Wealth Management’s base case is also a hold in October, according to an Oct. 14 Chase article.

The reason a hike is still on the table: September’s consumer price index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, up from 3.4% in August and above expectations, driven largely by energy prices. A surprise is possible, so I wouldn’t treat any forecast as a sure thing.

What are mortgage rates right now?

As of Oct. 22, 2026, Freddie Mac’s weekly survey put the average 30-year fixed rate at 7.32%, down from 7.40% the week before. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%, down from 6.71%.

Freddie Mac average	Oct. 22, 2026	Oct. 15, 2026	A year earlier
30-year fixed	7.32%	7.40%	6.19%
15-year fixed	6.68%	6.71%	5.44%

Source: Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, Oct. 22, 2026. The survey reflects conventional, conforming purchase loans for borrowers with 20% down and excellent credit; your quote will differ.

Does the Fed set mortgage rates?

No. The Fed sets a short-term policy rate, while 30-year mortgage rates tend to follow longer-term bond yields and expectations about inflation. A Fed decision can move mortgage rates, but often what matters most is the statement and how markets read the path ahead.

That’s why a hold on Oct. 28 could still nudge rates up if the Fed signals more hikes, or down if it sounds more patient. The next useful data point after the meeting is Freddie Mac’s weekly survey on Thursday, Oct. 29.

How would a rate change affect a Maui mortgage payment?

On Maui’s September median prices, a half-point swing changes a monthly payment by roughly $300 on a home and $180 on a condo. RAM’s September 2026 medians were $1,150,000 for single-family homes and $660,000 for condos.

Here’s principal and interest on a 30-year fixed loan with 20% down. These are illustrations, not forecasts:

Rate scenario	Home: $920,000 loan	Condo: $528,000 loan
6.82% (half point lower)	$6,010	$3,449
7.32% (Oct. 22 average)	$6,320	$3,627
7.82% (half point higher)	$6,636	$3,808

Principal and interest only. Property taxes, insurance, HOA dues and any mortgage insurance are extra. Medians from the REALTORS® Association of Maui September 2026 report, as reported by Maui Now (Oct. 9, 2026).

For context, the week-to-week drop from 7.40% to 7.32% lowered the payment on that $920,000 loan by about $50 a month. A $920,000 loan is also below Maui’s 2026 conforming loan limit of $1,299,500; above that, you’re in jumbo territory, which my conforming loan limit guide explains.

My Take: What I’m Telling Buyers and Sellers Before Oct. 28

For buyers, I wouldn’t try to time one Fed meeting. Rates can move either way afterward, and the payment difference between scenarios is real but manageable compared with getting the right property at the right price. What I do is a complete assessment of the best payment for a buyer’s situation, looking with them at the overall payment and all aspects of their financial situation before deciding the best course of action.

In practice, that means getting a fresh pre-approval at today’s rates, asking your lender how a rate lock and a float-down option would work if you’re already in escrow, and running your budget at a rate a bit higher than today’s quote so a bad week doesn’t derail you. If you’re shopping now, compare the 15-year rate too; at 6.68% it’s meaningfully lower, though the payment is higher.

For sellers, higher rates mean fewer buyers can stretch to the top of their budget. A seller credit toward a buyer’s rate can sometimes do more than an equal price cut, and my guide to rate buydowns and seller concessions on Maui shows how that works. For the longer view, see my post on the 2027 mortgage rate forecast.

Fed Meeting and Maui Mortgage Rates FAQ

What time is the Fed announcement in Hawaiʻi?
8 a.m. Hawaiʻi time on Wednesday, Oct. 28, 2026 (2 p.m. Eastern).

What is the federal funds rate right now?
3.75% to 4.00%, after the Fed’s quarter-point increase on Sept. 16, 2026.

What is the average 30-year mortgage rate this week?
7.32% as of Oct. 22, 2026, per Freddie Mac, down from 7.40% a week earlier.

Will mortgage rates go down if the Fed holds?
Not necessarily. Mortgage rates follow longer-term bond markets and the Fed’s signals about future moves, so they can rise or fall after a hold.

Ask Benjamin

Wondering what today’s rates mean for the Maui home or condo you’re considering, or how to price a listing in this market? I’m Benjamin Finnerty, and I’m glad to run the numbers with you. Call or text me at 808-481-9748 or email benjamin@the808team.com.

Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC meeting calendar (2026); Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (Oct. 22, 2026); Forbes (Oct. 19, 2026); Chase / J.P. Morgan Wealth Management (Oct. 14, 2026); InvestingLive (September 2026 CPI); REALTORS® Association of Maui September 2026 data via Maui Now (Oct. 9, 2026); FHFA 2026 conforming loan limits.